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Cake day: December 9th, 2023

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  • There have been drone strikes on helicopters in flight before that destroyed them, but all of the ones I have heard of were exploiting being able to ambush a helicopter as it is coming in for landing. Like ambushing a bear as it is coming home for the night and is about to walk into its cave…

    This is much more ballsy, this is a FPV drone pilot getting up in the flight path of a Russian helicopter and fucking with it toe to toe as it is traversing at low level and is much more impressive in my opinion. The Mi8 may look like a big clumsy helicopter, but they are incredibly agile machines, the fact that an FPV pilot was even able to get into position to do this, and then was able to stunt on Russia by pulling an aggressive manuever to “catch” the helicopter demonstrates a tactical mastery to flying in combat with an FPV drone that I don’t think a lot of militaries pilots have a healthy respect for.

    I think most militaries are far more focused on the threat of AI automated flying bombs, but this is a decisive demonstration of the power of a human being flying an FPV drone that can organically identify an unusual high value target and successfully interdict it when the rare opportunity arises without bungling it. I cannot imagine how unbelievably hard it would be to fight againts Ukraine’s military in fullscale highly lethal warfare when Ukraine has so many pilots like this, any tiny mistake you make and there is somebody who is going to whip a drone at you in a manner that exploits every single inch of opportunity given to them by it.

    This isn’t going to be something helicopter pilots will be able to ignore in the future, the helicopter is going to have to become a flying AA platform against smaller UAVs like this, which in some respects is mainly a change in fundamental doctrine but it also involves having the right kind of high reserve ammunition weapons that can deal with this kind of persistent threat.

    Ultimately though, as cool as the move looks the primary question is how were the Ukrainian drone pilots able to predict where the helicopter was going to fly low over or was this mostly a chance thing? If they set up that ambush, even if it was an ad hoc thing it really demonstrates how much more command of intitiative Ukraine has in battle than Russia does. The whole POINT of a helicopter is supposed to be moving very fast and very unpredictably.

    Edit yeah those Russian helicopter pilots simply got outflown and outsmarted by Ukrainian FPV pilots

    “We noticed that there is a certain pattern in the way enemy aircraft operate. For some time, we conducted surveillance, analyzed and roughly determined the point from which the aircraft operated and the approximate time. Then, at the time when enemy aircraft usually operated, I would fly out on patrol and wait for the aircraft. When there were no helicopters, I simply flew further along the logistics routes in search of enemy vehicles. And today I was lucky.”






  • But anyway, it’s not very fitting for drones, because they are not capturing any territory.

    Agreed, the entire aim of a Blitz or Blitzkrieg is territorial capture and encirclement of large portions of the enemy that can be isolated and forced to surrender rather than having to smash the enemy to bits piece by piece in a way that grinds down and degrades friendly forces.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blitzkrieg

    This is complicated by the fact that people will often use the word “Blitz” in English in much more general contexts to imply a process done in a coordinated, surprise, overwhelming action, so this use of the word “Blitz” is kind of between a more precise and more general usage in an awkward spot for journalists.

    It gets even more headache inducing when you keep reading about the history of the word lol (from the wikipedia article)

    Despite being common in German and English-language journalism during World War II, the word Blitzkrieg was never used as an official military term by the Wehrmacht, except for propaganda, and it was never officially adopted as a concept or doctrine.[8][b] According to David Reynolds, “Hitler himself called the term Blitzkrieg ‘a completely idiotic word’ (ein ganz blödsinniges Wort)”.[10] Some senior German officers, including Kurt Student, Franz Halder, and Johann Adolf von Kielmansegg, even disputed the idea that it was a military concept. Kielmansegg asserted that what many regarded as blitzkrieg was nothing more than “ad hoc solutions that simply popped out of the prevailing situation”. Kurt Student described it as ideas that “naturally emerged from the existing circumstances” as a response to operational challenges.[11]


  • During the years preceding World War II, Opel was Germany’s largest truck producer. The Blitz name, coined in a prize competition, was first applied to the new Opel truck presented in November 1930.[1] As part of the Nazi economy and the German re-armament efforts, the authorities ordered the construction of the Opelwerk Brandenburg facilities in 1935, and through 1944 more than 130,000 Blitz trucks and chassis were produced.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opel_Blitz

    an Opel Blitz

    The word “Blitz” is intimately connected with the idea of using a truck to conduct rapid maneuver warfare in such a way that nullified brutally inefficient WW1 tactics and their ignorance of what the truck (and also honestly, horse) could do to the calculus of war. I agree though, “Blitz” still potentially carries Nazi and fascist undertones/context.

    I am fine with using a different word than “Blitz”, but what should we use? “Armored maneuver warfare” doesn’t cover it because the Blitz is about the truck before even the armored vehicle even though armored vehicle rushes are what people mainly think of.

    “Mechanized Warfare” is a good one? It points to tools not tactics though which misses a critical aspect.


  • Oh definitely, I have no idea how you get actually accurate figures for ratio of artillery shells fired Russia vs. Ukraine but I am sure Russia fires far more (you have to when on the offensive, but also Russia has a massive capacity) but consider the basic logic that if the disparity exists such as it is, that only makes a given increase in artillery availability at a logistical level for Ukraine that much more impactful.

    In otherwords the larger apparent disparity in necessary volume of artillery input to achieve a certain degree of battlefield effect (per km of frontline) in favor of Ukraine, the more any increase in artillery supplies to Ukraine translates into a change of the status quo power balance. In this respect, the more Russia is outfiring Ukraine now the worse that makes the calculus look when the tables are more even.

    This would be a different conversation if Russia wasn’t gaining territory at such a costly rate and at such a slow rate.

    On paper I am sure Russia has a dizzying numerical advantage but what does 10,000 155mm shells do for Ukraine vs 10,000 152mm shells for Russia? Russia gets FAR less for those 10,000 shells for a multitude of reasons so I don’t know how to relevantly directly compare the numbers.



  • 2026, timelines are hard to suss out though as this isn’t starting up an entire new production line, it is beaucratically structuring a purchase of arms which already exist in great number in other logistics contexts, and even before the shells hit the frontline the military industrial message it sends is unmistakably immediate and final, the heavy industry of Europe has decisively turned against Russia.

    Rheinmetal is now in the business of directly producing artillery shells of a NATO caliber to sell to Ukraine in order to blow up Russians, once that deal is inked, the financial relationships are set in motion and solidified… it sets the entire strategic context of this war, as when it comes to war all follows heavy industry and mass artillery production. Say whatever the hell you want into a microphone about who your allies are and how politically this or that conflict is going, what matters is who you give the heavy artillery too and in what number (figuratively, but also literally too that is my point…).

    How quickly will these artillery shells reach the frontline? I don’t know, but at this point if Russia has any greater territorial aims or if they even want to hold on to what they have taken from Ukraine they are playing a game of chicken with trying to accomplish it before the closing edge of this war is slammed shut by Ukraine simply having too much artillery for Russia to engage with even in skirmishes and not have concentrations of their forces spectacularly smashed to bits by retaliatory artillery.

    You can’t play around poking and prodding an enemy that has solid reserves of 155mm ammunition to lob back at your forces projecting into their territory and expect to be able to sustain that, the consequences are simply too devastating. It is like trying to eat a meal by stealing french fries from someone individually one at a time but every time you try to steal a french fry you roll a dice that if it turns up 6 you get smashed in the face with a baseball bat with zero warning. Ok so you tell me you are feeling reallllly lucky… it still isn’t a strategy that is going to work, you either have to decisively go for all the french fries or quit trying to peck at them or you inveitably get your face smashed in.

    To be honest Russia/Putin seems to have placed themselves into such a stupid position here I am not sure if they actually understand this… what I mean specifically is that they could rely on this kind of strategy only because Ukraine was previously being deprived of sufficient artillery guns and ammunition to stop it, up until recently I honestly thought this was mostly a propaganda position on Russia’s part to pretend this strategy could keep working but I honestly think they might have bought their own bullshit because they have entered into a nose dive in this war that they really can’t pull out of at a basic undeniable logistics level…

    What does it matter if it takes 4 months, 6 months, 8 months for these artillery orders to start upping the artillery reserves Ukraine has? In my opinion it would only be relevant if there was some kind of real objective Russia was realistically rushing towards obtaining that they thought they could reach before that point happens… but I don’t see any in sight, just more stupendously costly and embarassing losses to attrition and encirclement from Ukraine forces resisting and counter attacking.



  • Honestly my advice is just leave, if people cannot get over the fact of homeless people using something that is free and will deny it to everyone because of that, there is a deep sickness to that place.

    I like Oly because it is known for having homeless people by the surrounding area, which means a whole lot of people don’t come here who I would never even want to interact with anyways. I have never had an issue with the homeless on the bus system or otherwise shrugs. Cost of housing of course is awful though…

    Also on the money note, it is a bunch of nonsense, the vast majority of funding for bus systems DOES NOT come from tickets/faires, people just like the idea of nickel and diming people using the bus system because they think they deserve it, the reason most bus systems charge faires is really that stupid and petty. When you use the bus you are saving money for everybody around you, you reduce congestion, wear on the roads, risk of accident and many other benefits people typically don’t factor into the “cost” of having a bus system.

    The Health Impact in 5 Years initiative from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) highlights fourteen nonclinical, community-wide interventions supported by evidence of positive health impacts within five years and cost-effectiveness or cost savings over the lifetime of the population or earlier. Introducing or expanding public transportation is one of the Health Impact in 5 Years interventions. In addition, the CDC Foundation published tools for public health professionals that include a Public Health Action Guide on how public health can partner with transportation agencies to improve public transportation systems.

    https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/briefs/public-transportation-us-driver-health-and-equity


  • I live in a place with a totally free bus system!

    It is fucking awesome, there is no stupid card, no people being hassled who can’t pay… and I find when I go out without driving I am just less depressed to the point that I will now go out of my way to walk and ride the bus since I feel less like a ghost fading away in a shockingly expensive metal bubble that is always breaking or costing money when I do…

    I live 10 min bus ride from a very walkable ~50,000 person towncenter, it is a massive quality of life boost for me.

    Seriously, move to Olympia! Or advocate for free public transit in your city/hometown! It makes everything so much more walkable especially not needing a card or other nonsense, just walk on and go.

    Also when the US economy screams to a halt, the only service industry heavy places that will weather it will be places in local, accessible, walkable downtowns that are easy and pleasant for people to get to rather than ANOTHER process of getting in a car, driving 25+ minutes, sitting in traffic and scrambling for parking and then repeating the process to get home when you are tired.

    Same thing goes for employment, jobs that employees can get to through public transit will be FAR more desirable jobs as even if an employee drives most days for the convenience, figuring out how to get to work when their car has problems is 1000 times easier when they can rely on mass transit as a sure backup even if it is annoying and not ideal. Getting a job that REQUIRES a working car every single day to access is a massive liability and added stress on an employee in comparison. …and before you say “but what about Uber?” the thing is… that ALL has to be priced into Uber costs too, it just hides all of that behind “somebody’s elses problem”.

    People in the US are utterly cornered economically by the 1% and as much as we are hopelessly addicted to cars, THE ONLY place people in the US will have to budge in trimming down their costs will be getting rid of their cars… it really doesn’t matter that nobody is thinking about it or wants to or that US culture is still entirely based around getting a massive inefficient SUV/pickup as a symbol of making it… USians will simply not be able to afford having a car in the very near future, if they can even afford it now as it is. Then what? Walkability is suddenly an existentially necessary anchor for a community to even exist.