• 0 Posts
  • 19 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: October 9th, 2023

help-circle
  • Apologies it took me so long to look at this - got busy irl, but that’s a fair take, and an understandable one at that. I’ve long been of the opinion that sanctions on nations like North Korea and Iran are, at this point, completely ineffectual, and are essentially just inflicting pain on the civilian populace for little gain. Past a certain threshold of sanctioning, you essentially decouple your economy from the one you’re sanctioning, and in so doing you lose any leverage you might have had. I also will make clear that I consider the US’s actions in the case of Cuba to be utterly reprehensible; that particular case is as clear cut as it gets, and is illustrative of the way that the US has historically wielded its geopolitical and economic heft with all the precision of a cudgel as part of its broader aims to impose its own (flawed) economic view of the world.

    The thing that I would note, however, is that the US isn’t the only actor, and that sanctions on North Korea haven’t been continuous by other western actors. In particular, sanctions were easing to a significant degree in the 90s and early 2000s under the Agreed Framework as a consequence of Seoul pushing for normalized relations during that time. This changed, however, when North Korea first withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and then in particular tested nuclear weapons several times from 2006 onward. At that point, several western nations which had lifted sanctions re-imposed them as an attempt to discourage other actors from pursuing the same path. Now, I will admit that this is a somewhat unfair argument, as it fails to note that the US broadly did not hold up its end of the deal within the Agreed Framework, only agreeing to it in the first place on the assumption that the Kim regime would collapse before they needed to hold up their end, and Israel is similarly in violation of the NPT and hasn’t faced anything like the consequences that North Korea has, but it isn’t as if there aren’t modern reasons for the sanctions, nor is it the case that North Korea isn’t somewhat guilty here.

    All that said, however, I still don’t think that the North Korean sanctions as they exist now are serving American interests, and the reason I say that is because it has pushed North Korea into alignment with Russia, as they have essentially zero to lose by doing so considering how heavily sanctioned they already are. Historically, the primary limitation of North Korean nuclear weapons is not the warhead, but actually the technical aspect of the delivery system, and North Korea’s recent collaboration with Russia may actually resolve that particular problem for them, as Russia has the industry and technical know-how to create some truly cutting edge ballistic missiles. In a certain sense, the American over-use of sanctions may, at this point, have actually become entirely self-defeating in a geostrategic sense.

    Sanctions do make sense in the case of Russia, though, as they are a net positive producer in most critical civilian industries, so the populace is unlikely to go hungry regardless of sanctions, so the sanctions instead serve a primary purpose of providing an extra layer of friction in Russian imports of technical systems, increasing cost for domestic military manufacturing, and an extra layer of friction for Russian exports. One specific example is OPEC capping the price of oil at such a level that Russia is unlikely to actually make any kind of profit on such an export. This allows the global price of oil to be kept steady (and keeps the price high enough that, ideally, Russian civilians who work in the industry aren’t faced with economic pain) while simultaneously limiting how much Russia can benefit from the export of such goods. That’s not really relevant to North Korea (except, perhaps, insofar as technical imports by Russia might be used to assist in warhead delivery system development, but I’ve covered that already), but I figured I would mention it as I do believe there is a case to be made for sanctions in some scenarios, separate from the fact that the US’s overuse is, at this point, clearly not what should be aimed for. Sanctions (just like tariffs, good lord the current admin is braindead) are a tool which should be considered with a surgeon’s mindset; only used in very specific scenarios where it is both necessary and sensible, and wielded with the precision of a scalpel, and not that of a blunt instrument

    Regardless, though, I’ll acknowledge that your view isn’t unfounded, and that it’s not so cut-and-dry as I had implied. Thank you for providing that study, I’ll definitely be keeping that on hand for future reference.


  • What a strange take this is. If you are trying to equivocate the two situations as a condemnation of Ukraine, I would note that sanctions are leveraging economic power, while conventional warfare leverages military power, and you obfuscate this difference by using the word “blockade”. It isn’t a blockade, it’s sanctions. Blockades involve military power, sanctions do not. Do I believe that the US is guilty of immense human suffering as a consequence of the usage of sanctions in international relations? Of course, and I’m equally aware of the diminishing returns of pulling such an economic lever, but between economic and military power, North Korea is under economic pressure, and Ukraine is under military pressure. Having a military government only makes sense as a solution in one of these two situations, and the situations are similarly not comparable.

    If, however, I instead take you at face value, likely against my better judgement, and interpret your point instead to mean that it’s valid for North Korea not to have elections because they are also justified in martial law, then I am perhaps even more confused, because it sounds like you’re arguing for martial law because of sanctions endured by North Korea (if so, see above why this is not a justification for martial law). What confuses me, though, is why you would pick that justification in the first place. You could, for example, argue that because North Korea only has an armistice with South Korea, they technically remain still at war, and thus are reasonable for imposing a permanent state of martial law. My counterpoint would be that South Korea is, at this point, incredibly unlikely to invade for a variety of economic, political, and demographic reasons, and North Korea has already shielded itself against existential threat via nuclear weapons (their opponent’s capital is 40km from the border, Seoul can’t even get much warning, much less intercept the nukes). Regardless of sanctions, there isn’t actually that much reason that North Korea should still be devoting so many of its resources to its military, nor is there that much of a reason for martial law to still be in effect.

    I would also question if you genuinely think that any kind of meritocratic process occurred in a military sense when, rather than elect a leader (reflecting a peacetime footing), or have an experienced military officer take the role (reflecting a wartime footing), leadership instead passed down through three generations of the same family. Frankly, I don’t think martial law can justify that, regardless of whether or not martial law itself is justified.

    Edit: Also, if you happen to have that study showing the 500,000 figure on hand, I would actually love to take a look at it. I wouldn’t be surprised, as often it is the civilian populace who bears the burden of sanctions, but it would be good to take a look at it to see if I can get a credible number to attach to that idea.


  • Certainly. I don’t mean to say that Zelenskyy’s time in office has been without controversy, even after his steadfast response to the war boosted (frankly, saved) his approval. The incident with NABU and SAPO, anti-corruption bodies in Ukraine whose independence was under threat back in July of this year, is a perfect example of this. I think, however, the fact that the government backed down on that in the wake of domestic protests and international backlash is a good indicator that Ukraine isn’t a dictatorship at the moment.


  • As the other commenter responded, you’ll be told you’re wrong. Because you are. Presumably you’re referring to the fact that Ukraine hasn’t had an election, despite Zelenskyy’s term being over?

    War. It’s war. The answer is because they’re at war. Martial law has been declared, a state of emergency, and their constitution suspends elections during such a time. If they want to keep drafting soldiers in order to fight against the war of conquest declared on them by Russia, then this cannot change.

    Putin could end Zelenskyy’s term right now if he simply chose to end the war. Anyone who believes the situation is so simple as “Ukraine is a dictatorship” is not only wrong, but dangerously wrong, and likely dangerously stupid to boot.



  • No problem! I figure I should make my time as a believer useful for people, especially so given how much misinformation about the church there is (people still ask me about polygamy when I travel outside Utah, despite the fact that the practice was ended in the late 1800s). As religions go, it’s definitely a lot more extreme than most you’ll find, but is simultaneously less extreme than a lot of people seem to think.


  • Utah is the beating, putrid heart of the LDS (Mormon) Church. If you’re unaware of the particulars of Mormonism, it is, in a phrase, American exceptionalism as a religion. One part massive corporation and one part puritanical religion, the LDS church has guidelines for nearly every aspect of how you should live your life. For example, there is The Word of Wisdom, which prohibits green and black teas, coffee, alcohol, and tobacco. This has since been expanded to include vaping and all recreational (but not prescription) drugs. Premarital sex is strictly off the table, and while they are less uptight about it than they used to be, it is still definitely not acceptable to be LDS and queer. They weren’t even cool with tattoos and more than one piercing in each ear (and even then, only for women) until the last couple of years where it was reframed as a personal decision.

    Now, for Utah itself. As a result of the high concentration of Mormons in Utah, social dynamics amongst them become very strange and, frankly, deeply judgmental. Everyone who is part of the church sort of becomes an accountabilibuddy for everyone else, in a sort of arms race to prove their own purity and adherence to the teachings of the church, and because the religion is so baked into communities, a perceived loss of piety can often translate to a direct loss in community and social standing. Consequently, the Mormons you meet who are from Utah are going to be a very different breed from the kind you’ll meet outside of Utah.

    Edit: I’ve been fairly negative toward Mormons here, but I should say that this is, in part, my perception as an Ex-Mormon who grew up in Utah. The church has some negative aspects, but I feel I should be fair and mention that it isn’t all negative. Mormons are BIG on community. Participation in local service projects in your community is expected and heavily encouraged. If someone in your ward loses a family member, it would not be uncommon to see that ward band together, creating a schedule of people to cook meals and bring them to that person to help support and care for them while they grieve. Food drives are common, and the church has a history of running food banks and providing financial assistance for people dealing with poverty. Often this assistance comes with some strings (listen to missionaries/take lessons from visiting teachers) but they don’t require belief, baptism, or even church attendance to my knowledge. Not ideal, certainly, but an hour of evangelization a week beats homelessness or starvation. Like many religions, it’s a mixed bag.





  • I mean, there is def an applicable skill set there that most people won’t have. Understanding common passwords, the typical ways people might add variation to those passwords, and understanding how to apply relevant information about the person in question are all ways to massively narrow down the scope of potential passwords when brute forcing or guessing your way in. There’s a good numberphile video that covers something similar to this topic which goes into a bit more detail.

    That’s to say: everyone should use a password manager.









  • Qin or Qing? Because those two dynasties are separated by about 2000 years. For reference, this is the guy depicted and he was a legalist of the state of Qin. He’s a pretty interesting dude, with the foundational work for Chinese legalism being attributed (at least in part) to him.

    Also he was executed by being torn into pieces, which is pretty metal.